Tag Archives: Brexit

Where did the Western World go wrong – and how do we fix it?

It’s fair to say that 2016 has been eventful, yesterdays election of Donald Trump being merely the cherry on top of a year that has seen the unimaginable become fact. The western world appears to attempting to turn its back on liberal progress and for many those changes make the future a good deal darker and good deal scarier. So how has it come to this?

Right now within the western world, the average person has it better than their counter part in almost any point in human history. Yes I know you can point to the various inequalities within the western world but they in no way compare to the inequalities found in the past, now I put emphasis on Almost for the reason. A generation ago it was possible to come out of school with few if any qualifications and get a job that paid at least a living wage, go back two generations and a university degree flat out guaranteed employment. This is no longer the case. I know personally an individual who has a first class masters and in her chosen field it does not qualify her for employment, it qualifies her to do a PHD which will then (hopefully) allow her into the field. People who entered the field twenty years ago did so on the strength of simple BA degree. It is now not unusual to leave education tens of thousands in debt – sums that would represent a good deposit for house today or buy it outright thirty years ago – and only be able to find employment that’s pay will not justify that expenditure.

There is also the matter of the inequality of failure. Within the last decade we’ve seen a the banking crisis which involved much of the sector being bailed out. If we look at the top level of these businesses, we find individuals who were being paid sums of money equivalent to decades worth of the average industrial wage per year. Yet when financial institutions started falling like dominoes, many of these individuals kept their jobs or where they did go, did so with another big pay out. By comparison when the recession came, many ordinary individuals found themselves unemployed overnight, harassed for payment of mortgages on properties that were no longer worth anything approaching the outstanding loan amounts. It wasn’t even just the financial industry, here in Ireland the building industry was allowed allowed to run wild and one particularly tragic case a newly built apartment block was judged unsafe because the builder had chosen to skip fire safety features. Owners found themselves still being required to pay mortgages for apartments they couldn’t live in. It was only after one own committed suicide leaving behind a young family, that the government here grudgingly stepped in. While the builder was bankrupted, it is hard to regard this as being equal. In Britain a major department chain recently collapsed leaving the staff unemployed, a pension scheme with a hole so large it practically echoed and a former owner who went off and bought himself a luxury yacht – all perfectly legally.

What all of these thing have in common is that it is placing the middle under pressure. Pay is lower, costs are higher with incomes far from certain; people are facing into a future where they will probably not able to afford a standard of living equal to that of their parents generation. People want what they have had and want to pass on to their own children , something that is becoming increasingly difficult. America rightfully prided itself as being the place where anyone could make it big; it’s now becoming the case that a person born into a middle class family will be doing well just to hold position. Pressure is building and the likes of Brexit and Trump are symptoms of that pressure.

The Political Elite Isn’t Listening

For the last few decades the west’s political elites have pushed an agenda of globalization. Old heavy industries have been allowed to die without being replaced and those who might have been employed by them have found themselves left out in the cold. In the case of EU a federalist, expansionist agenda was pursued. Economic data was fudged, with decisions made because they fitted with ideology rather than facts on the ground. All of which has fed into an anti-establishment groundswell.

Unfortunately so far those who have managed to tap into tap into that groundswell have been far from being White Knights. The very best of them are mere political opportunists seeking a comfortable government job and a good pension. The worst are seeking to push values  more appropriate to the nineteen forties. Either way they hark back to a nostalgic view of past, choosing to ignore those details that don’t fit their version – like the fact that the pay gap between the ordinary worker and business owner was a fraction of what now is. These individuals do not have solutions, what they have are scapegoats, be it gays, migrants, promiscuous women or whatever punchbag of the week is. These people are not going to solve problems because they either have no idea how or flat out no real interest in doing so because it does not align to their own interests. That electorates are listening to these extremist positions is a symptom of an old order that isn’t listening. Hillary Clinton I would imagine would have made a serviceable if unremarkable president – a placeholder notable for her sex and little more but now we’ll never know.

So What Can Be Done

To begin with don’t dismiss those who voted for Brexit or Trump as racists. Yes there are indeed racists in their ranks, people who would march us back towards the worst aspects of the past. But to dismiss them lock, stock and barrel is quite simply an act of surrender. It is the path of least resistance if we dismiss them as racists then we don’t even try to win them back. If we don’t win them back, then the likes of Trump and the Brexiters continue to win.

Next we need to accept that the old order is failing. Offering the same old, same old to people who have already seen its like and been failed by it will not work politically. If the political will is to be re-taken then it must offer an equally bold view, one possibility is a reapportionment of wealth via heavy taxation of the one percent and the closing of tax loopholes that have allowed large multinationals avoid contributing.

Finally as members of the electorate we need to accept there are no simple answers to complicated questions. It is the mark dishonesty to claim that there are. If we take the example above, there would certainly be a capital flight but we must be willing to accept pain for gain. Certainly the next few years are going to be interesting and we must be ready to contest the ground with the extreme right.

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Problems of Self Publishing – Currency Exchange

At the start of this year I had hoped would putting out by now my next book; due to various changes in personal circumstances that basically isn’t going to happen. The amount of time I got to commit to all thing writing related took a hit and I decided to concentrate what little I got on the writing part of writing as opposed to the business part of writing, however with the benefit of hindsight that might have been for the best. As followers of this blog are no doubt aware I live in Dublin, Ireland, which is part of the Eurozone. What you might be less aware of, is that over half my book sales to date have been through Amazon.UK, which is priced and pays me in sterling. At the moment that’s not such a good thing.

Brexit

On the 23rd of June of this year Britain voted to leave the European Union, since then the Pound exchange rate against the Euro has done this:

pound-to-eur-jun-to-oct

And in October it has got especially exciting:

pound-to-eur-oct

The source for these can be found HERE

At time of writing (morning of 12th October 2016) one pound sterling is worth one euro and eleven cents – less exchange costs. So let us crunch some very basic numbers.

My first book – The Nameless War – is currently for sale on Amazon.UK for £2.90 for the ebook version, so the breakdown is as follows:

£2.90 selling price, 30% of which goes to Amazon, leaving £2.03. Multiply this by 1.42 (£ to € rate on 19th Nov 2015) equals €2.88.

Do the same calculation again at today’s rate and:

£2.90 selling price, 30% of which goes to Amazon, leaving £2.03. Multiply this by today’s rate of 1.11 equals €2.25.

This is a drop of €0.63 or nearly 22%.

Now obviously this is a little bit artificial, it doesn’t include various fees, like bank fees and I don’t get to chose which day Amazon send payment for the month, so the arrival of funds in my account will probably not coincide with the absolute peak or trough of exchange movements. Also to complicate matters Amazon pays two months in arrears, I won’t see the money from a book sale today until the tail end of December but this example nonetheless gives a sense of the issue.

At the moment I personally can take a relatively calm view of this. My last book was published two years ago and while I am still getting sales in the UK, they are at a fairly low level so the reduction in the value of those sales is fairly modest. That however is for books that were released two and five years ago. In my experience the bulk of a new book’s sales are made in the first couple months, with an accompanying knock on to my other books. This means that payment comes in a few large lumps, rather than spread evenly over the course of the year. So while the reduction on say ten sales is only €6.3, on a thousand it is more than €600, which becomes harder to swallow. So if after months or years of writing those big paydays coincide with a slump in the source currencies value, then you are left to take the hit.

So what can I do?

The answer isn’t quite nothing but where I’m standing, the options are limited and all carry at least some downsides.

1. Sit on any planned new releases.

This is probably the simplest option. Keep your powder dry, wait out the fluctuation until at the very least things have stabilized. The downside of this is that your work isn’t earning if it is stuck in your desk draw. If you are with a publisher, contractually it might not even possible. If you are writing a series readers will not wait forever, they’ll either forget about you or get irritated, either way hard earned goodwill starts to drain away and with it your potential sales.

2. Peg the book’s price against a currency that is stable relative to your own.

This one is tricky and very dependent on the system you’re using. With Amazon self publishing it is possible to peg the price of book in other regions against the US$. Now Sterling is currently on the slide against the US$ so the very obvious downside of this is that the book’s price is going to start rising. In all likelihood some of the writers I would be competing with for sales are based in the UK, their price could remain static while mine rose. Their prices in other areas could fall or remain as is and they would receive more per sale when it got converted to their home currency – the upside of currency fluctuation. Either way the risk would be that you could be priced out.

3. Park the foreign currency.

While this one is even trickier. That means parking the foreign currency within that territory or in a foreign denominated account. Depending on regulations or cost this might be unworkable, either way this is delaying the inevitable, at some point you have to change it into the currency of the country you are in, especially if your writing income is you main income.

There are also other financial instruments for mitigating against foreign currency movements, but I don’t know enough about these to speak about and I suspect that many may not be suitable for relatively small amounts. The other thing I don’t claim knowledge or is what things were like back in the days before electronic self publishing, the answer probably depended on the contract between writer and publisher. Also in the old days books were not generally subject to global release. In the age of Amazon, a book can be available to anywhere on planet Earth with an internet connection and with that availability comes exposure to currency movements. If you are based inside the country where you make you main sales, then it is less of an issue but it is something that the modern writer needs to be aware or and ready for.

So any thoughts, comments or observations?

CORRECTION: A commenter points out I have failed to account for vat – value added tax – so my back of the envelope calculations in fact lean towards optimistic. Thank you and I will make the correction when I can – currently attending Octocon in Dublin.

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Fiction adapting to reality

So this weeks hot news is that Britain has voted to leave the European Union, a decision I view as being the wrong one but that’s a rant for another day. Over the weekend – while still in a state of disbelief – the thought crossed my mind how does this effect my writing?

Now for once I’m not talking about the economics – although God knows given the way sterling has nosedived against… everything, I’m glad I didn’t have anything new come out this month – I’m talking about the settings of my work. For those who haven’t read the Nameless War, it is only set a few decades into the future and it is one where nation states still exist, including the United Kingdom. My current WIP is set even closer to the present and spends much of its time in the UK.

Out in the real world, the Brexit vote has made it very uncertain what way things are going to go. Given that within the last two years Scotland only narrowly voted to remain in the United Kingdom, but last week voted to stay in the EU, there is a fair chance that the Scots will now attempt to bailout. As for Northern Ireland – a province sandwiched between two countries, neither of which really want it – that’s anyone’s guess. I’m not going to speculate here how likely any of this is, what I am going to speculate on is how or whether I reflect it in my work.

There are a couple of options. The first would be to keep things so ambiguous that no matter what ways things go, it won’t be wrong as such.  The problem with this is that you might find the work ends up lacking a sense of realism. Also attempting to twist words to avoid saying a particular detail might leave the reader feeling the book isn’t particularly well written.

The second possibility is go with yesterday’s status-quo. Basically ignore the uncertainty and proceed with things as they were until a new point of certainty has been established.  The virtue of this approach is safety, it will be for at least a time correct. Comic books do this periodically with US Presidents, I suspect opinions vary on whether it is a good idea or bad but it does very definitely date the work within a maximum of eight years. In the case of Brexit you could find the work dated before it’s even published and that could be a problem. In my experience most science fiction readers will accept that the older a book is the more allowances have to be made for the fact that it was written in a different time. If that different time was only six months ago that’s possibly a harder one to ask.

The third and final option is to decide what way you think things are going to go and run with it. Frankly unless your story is flat out about the possible consequences of the change I think this is the riskiest option. Unless you are a dab hand with the old crystal ball you will probably be wrong without – unlike option two without the virtue of every having been right.

So folks any thoughts or additions on the matter?

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A challenge to Brexit

Last week I was attempting to arrange voting by proxy in the impending Brexit referendum. Long story short I can’t because I’ve been living outside the UK for too long. My vote would have been to remain in the EU;  not going to claim the EU is perfect (at least not with a straight face) but it seems like the only logical choice when the Brexit’s campaign hinges on ‘it will be alright on the night’.

So since I can’t vote I’m going to issue a challenge to the leaders of Brexit and give them an opportunity to nail their colours to the mast. What I would like from them are their predictions for the UK’s performance in the following economic indicators:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
  • Income and Wages
  • Unemployment Rate
  • Consumer Price Index (Inflation)
  • Currency Strength
  • Interest Rates
  • Corporate Profits
  • Balance of Trade

For 2026 – ten years after Brexit if it happens.

Here’s the fun bit though – if these targets aren’t met you leave. You take responsibility for having lead Britain down the wrong path and you leave. You relinquish whatever state jobs or titles you’ve gained, surrender to the to exchequer whatever pension entitlements you have accrued from state employment and leave the country. Most of you are at least well off, so you can afford to up sticks, unlike the people you’ll have lead into an economic cul-de-sac.

There are a couple of caveats to keep things fair.

  1. If Britain votes to remain in the EU, then don’t worry about it.
  2. If Britain does leave but attempts to reenter before 2026 then that is the point at which we measure the indicators, we don’t wait for the ten year mark.
  3. You can set the bar as low as you like. Assuming you lack the confidence and self respect to do so.

So there’s the challenge. Do you have the guts to take it?

Edmond Barrett is a British Expat living the Ireland who is perfectly aware that since not many people read this blog currently it is very unlikely to ever reach the Brexit leadership and is currently contemplating whether to apply for Irish Citizenship.

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